The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in December rate hike imminent U.S. stock market center: exclusive national industry sector stocks, premarket after hours, ETF, real-time quotes warrants to view the latest market stocks Sina News Beijing time 22 days at 2 in the morning the Fed announced that the current 0.25%-0.50% quasi base to maintain interest rates unchanged. Since the last 12 months 9 years raised interest rates for the first time since the Fed has six consecutive meeting to halt the troops and wait. The Fed statement does not imply that the next rate hike time, but judging by the latest interest rate expectations of the Federal Reserve officials, the vast majority of people expect 1 interest rates this year, the probability of interest rate hike in December has been very high. Prior to the market basically think that today will not increase interest rates, the futures price of the federal funds fund futures show that the probability of interest rate hike today is only 18%, while the possibility of interest rate hike in December is 58%. The Fed’s latest economic evaluation are as follows: since the July meeting of the information show that strong labour market growth over the first half of shrinking economic activity has accelerated in recent months; although almost no change in the unemployment rate, but the average employment steady growth; family expenses to maintain strong growth, but continued weakness in business fixed investment; inflation remains below the Fed’s 2% longer-term goals, this part and the earlier decline in energy prices fell and non energy import prices in recent months; overall, the market index is still low inflation compensation based on the majority of the surveyed longer-term inflation expectations based on almost no change. Some analysts point out that the Fed may later give a more obvious signal of interest rate hikes in December. Yellen, chairman of the Federal Reserve, will hold a press conference at 2:30 am today. The fed to raise interest rates at the end of the year so far no further action A thing has its cause. since the beginning of this year, the global financial market turmoil and the economic growth in the first quarter weakness that Fed officials are difficult to resolve, and 6 at the end of a referendum in Britain decided to withdraw from the EU unexpectedly strengthened the Fed’s prudent. Since then, short of strong economic data show signs of the emergence of the United states. The Imperial Bank of Canada’s capital markets chief economist Avery Shenfeld pointed out that he had estimated that the Fed will raise interest rates today, even the statement and later Yellen conference will not give any obvious reason is that "interest rate hike signal, a series of recent weak data". Shenfeld said: "our economic weakness in the first half of the year, and then in the second half of 1-2 months of good data, and then 1 months of bleak data. The adverse situation this year has been to get rid of? My conclusion is not." In the first half of this year, the average growth rate of the U.S. economy was only 1% lower. After several recent dismal data releases, the market’s hopes for the second half of the year have dissipated. The main example of this is that the ISM manufacturing and service index, which is closely watched in the industry, contracted in August. In addition, the retail sales in August were weak, the employment growth slowed down, and the industrial output was also sluggish. BMO chief economist Douglas Porter said: "the conditions for a hike are not yet available.". The economic data in August were almost 3

美联储保持利率不变 12月加息箭在弦上 美股行情中心:独家提供全美股行业板块、盘前盘后、ETF、权证实时行情 查看最新行情   新浪美股讯 北京时间22日凌晨2点美联储宣布,保持0.25%-0.50%的现行基准利率不变。自去年12月9年多首次加息以来,联储迄今已连续六次会议按兵不动。联储声明没有暗示下一次加息的时间,但从联储官员最新的利率预期判断,绝大多数人预计今年内有1次加息,12月加息的概率已非常高。   此前市场基本上认为今日不会加息,芝商所联邦基金利率期货的价格显示,今日加息的概率不过18%,而12月加息的可能性为58%。   美联储的最新经济评估如下:7月会议以来的资讯表明,劳动力市场走强,经济活动较上半年的萎缩增长已有所加速;虽然近几个月来失业率几乎没有变化,但就业人数平均而言稳固增长;家庭开支保持强劲增长,但企业固定投资持续疲软;通胀仍低于联储2%的较长期目标,这部分与稍早时能源价格的下跌及非能源类进口价格的下降有关;近几个月整体来看,基于市场的薪酬通胀指标依然低下,多数基于调查的较长期通胀预期几乎没有变化。   一些分析人士指出,美联储稍后可能会发出12月加息的更明显信号。今天凌晨2点半联储主席耶伦将召开新闻发布会。   美联储去年底加息后迄今没有进一步的动作事出有因,今年初以来的全球金融市场动荡和美国经济第一季增长乏力令联储官员们难下决心,而6月末英国全民公投意外决定退出欧盟更强化了联储的审慎。此后,美国的经济数据出现短暂走强后显露疲态的问题。   加拿大帝国银行资本市场的首席经济学家Avery Shenfeld指出,他早已估计到美联储今天不会加息,甚至声明和稍后的耶伦发布会都不会给出任何明显的加息信号,原因就是“近来一连串的疲软数据”。   Shenfeld称:“我们上半年的经济疲软,然后下半年出现1-2个月的好数据,再是1个月的暗淡数据。今年开年的不利形势已被我们摆脱?我的结论是没有。”   今年上半年美国经济的平均增长率只有低下的1%。近来的多个低迷数据发布后,市场对下半年经济前景的希望已消散。这方面的主要例子是,业界颇为关注的ISM制造业和服务业指数在8月都出现收缩。此外,8月的零售销售疲软、就业增长放缓,工业产出亦低迷不振。   BMO首席经济学家Douglas Porter认为:“适合一次加息的条件目前还不具备。8月的经济数据几乎都是令人失望的。”他进一步指出,今年美联储官员已因为对外沟通而受到惩罚,他们一度似乎指明6月将会加一次息,结果糟糕的5月就业报告迫使他们食言。   Shenfeld就此指出:“鉴于出现过如此多次的摇摆和疏漏,现在按兵不动是适宜之举。”   摩根大通的高级经济学家James Glassman表示,他认为今天联储会议可能是鹰鸽两派力量对比更接近的一次会议,“我不认为不加息派的优势像市场定价指示的那样明显。我敢打赌,联储内部争论之激烈超过人们的想象。”   Glassman认为,近期的初请失业金人数在告诉人们,美国经济状况已趋于稳定,该数字已连续80周低于30万的重要关口,持续时间之长是1970年以来之最。(立悟 编译) 责任编辑:李兀 SF053相关的主题文章: