The European banking sector risk mitigation | banking | Europe | risk _ sina finance _ the sina finance opinion leader (WeChat public kopleader) agency column Pangu think tank, author Zhang Ming, Zheng, Wang Yuzhe, Yang Xiaochen, Zhou Liansheng the macroeconomic environment, the European economy temporarily stabilized, the overall improvement in the external environment, conducive to the European banking sector the risk gradually resolved. In terms of the ability to resist risks, the capital adequacy ratio of European banks has been increasing year by year, and it also reflects the strong overall risk resisting ability in the stress test. However, the European banking crisis has obvious localization trend. Frequent short-term political risks, the need to guard against political black swan event and the debt crisis superimposed on the regional economy caused greater damage. European banking risk mitigation, the European banking industry as a whole to mitigate the risk of temporary stabilization of the European economy, improve the external environment of the banking sector. Since the subprime mortgage crisis and the European debt crisis, the European banking industry has always been at the brink of crisis. With the gradual improvement of the economic basis, foreign assets and liabilities from the banking industry since March this year, the rally (Figure 1), from a structural point of view, although the government debt is still obvious, but with gradually narrowing the income gap (Figure 3). The gradual recovery of the credit of residents and business sectors (Figure 2) also objectively reflects the downward trend in the unemployment rate (Figure 4). Therefore, the European banking industry at this time of the macro and micro environment is conducive to gradually defuse the risk. European banking capital adequacy ratio gradually increased, the higher the margin of safety. Since 2010, the European banking sector has accumulated more than 260 billion euros of supplementary capital, capital conditions improved significantly. According to the European Banking authority (EBA) released the 2016 stress test results (Table 1), the European banking sector by the end of 2015 ordinary shares of capital adequacy ratio (CET1) was 13.2%, in extreme cases, the number will be reduced to 9.4% in 2018, but still higher than the Basel protocol for III. Figure 1: eurozone banking sector external assets and liabilities data sources: Wind, PRIME. Figure 2: eurozone banking sector credit structure data sources: Wind, PRIME. Figure 3: the euro area government revenue expenditure accounted for the proportion of GDP data sources: Wind, PRIME. Figure 4: eurozone unemployment data source: Wind, PRIME. Table 1:EBA CET1 stress test results data source: EBA, PRIME. Two, still need to be alert to local black swan event local debt haze has not completely dissipated. Europe and the United States (PIIGS) and Croatia, Romania and other countries of the NPL ratio is still high (Figure 5), the short term is difficult to digest. In the case of Italy, where the market is concerned, the unemployment rate is much better than in other parts of Europe (Figure 6). And since the end of 2015, government debt accounted for the proportion of GDP does not fall or rise, the rate has reached a new high (Figure 7). This shows that the overall debt risk is gradually concentrated in Europe, the structural differences between the countries intensified. Political risk may accelerate the bank相关的主题文章: