Financial Futures: PVC flat demand strategy short unilateral clients view the latest market investment strategy: strategy core logic: short-term supply and demand mismatch, money concerns an illusion. In 2016 the output of PVC monthly rise but the demand side is mediocre, a large number of funds focused on PVC, contributing to the futures market rose, with the stock soared; social inventory deliberately invisible, demand overdraft. Since the beginning of June in the tired social inventory inventory stage, but the market is feeling out of stock, goods the main reason exists in the hands of traders and speculators; downstream PVC industry suffered manufacturers limited production, small factory production gradually increased, increasing the risk of stock collapse. The main strategy of operation logic and       short-term supply and demand mismatch, money concerns amphitropous illusion in Figure 1, 2 source     wind, in the PVC Department of environmental supervision began in mid July, affected by the August PVC started to drop to 74% in late August, the end of September commencement of environmental supervision, PVC return to 79% per month relative to August increased 92 thousand tons (including 3, 5, 8), local still tight effect of calcium carbide. In October, without considering the environmental factors, the operating rate further increased to 84%, the monthly output relative to September increased 90 thousand tons; considering the environmental factors (assuming the environmental supervision of Shandong, Shaanxi, Sichuan, considering the situation, then the calcium carbide, pH) operating rate in October and September were flat, low environmental load offset high profit improvement on yield. Figure 3, 4 data sources wind, PVC in the Division since January 2016, PVC monthly output gradually rise, according to statistics in August yield of nearly 1 million 400 thousand tons, at historically high levels, but the demand side is mediocre, September reflects the busy season, the first second quarters of this year the shortage of domestic demand, while exports this year is eye-catching performance, can the absolute amount of CO (1 to August net exports of 400 thousand tons, the total output of 1 to August 3.7%), does not affect the overall supply and demand, to ascertain from several manufacturers in the northwest, is expected in October after the pre-sale and export for domestic prices upside down severely, reduce export volume is a foregone conclusion. And why the recent PVC spot prices can be crazy, PVC spot rose from 5700 to 6800, crazy price of nearly 20%, in just a few weeks to complete, in the end what happened? Since 1, the beginning of the September, by the end of the cost of calcium carbide price transmission price rose by 100 to calculate theoretically should be 150. 2, during the period of G20 in East China transportation problems (from August 6th to September 7th, the main railway station in East China, East China chemical handling can not lead to low inventories). After September 7th, the first recovery of demand, freight transport time difference and unable to focus on arrival, a short supply and demand mismatch. Has been gradually eased. 3, futures contract delivery in September, resulting in the passive delivery of some traders, the flow of goods in the hands of the phased reduction, the library needs time, and a large number of delivery of goods in a few hands,.相关的主题文章: