Wang Delun: time and space after the G20 index to have limited focus on 5 sina finance risk App: Live on-line blogger to tutor Jiepan listen to expert selection on Tournament Lin shares Niugu source: Wang Delun, Zhang Qiyao XYSTRATEGY Outlook: after G20 index up time was limited, attention may trigger prices down the risk after G20, time and space to the index co.. From time to time, from June 15th, we call the June layout, 7, in August to eat, itself is the stability of the window before the G20 as the core contradiction, the current time window is in the past. From space, the lack of action on the index. On the one hand, the suppression of asset price bubbles and regulatory tightening will eventually lead to incremental capital is expected to weaken the marginal, the index upward. On the other hand, this wave of rebound in the industry has been relatively full rotation, it is difficult to find the whole is still on the left, still in the bottom area of the plate, but also so that the current risk of investment income fell. G20 may trigger a downward risk point. 1, the expected difference in the regulatory level. After the stability of the window, the regulation of the less worries, the attitude may be more stringent, more clearly, the financial work conference may also discuss the framework of the three macro prudential regulatory framework. 2, bond market volatility and the negative impact of credit risk. This wave of stock market rebound, risk-free rate of return is also an important driving factor, the bond market to adjust the logic of short-term impact. The central bank to restart the 14 day reverse repurchase reduced overnight money supply is a continuation of financial deleveraging, and "curb asset price bubble" means have impact on term spreads and credit spreads, credit spreads narrowed sharply in June especially after does not exclude the rebound, thus affecting the risk appetite, and have a negative impact on the stock market. In addition, the fourth quarter is the peak of credit debt maturity, does not rule out the risk of credit risk in the form of an appropriate release to fix the bond market pricing, which is a way to curb the bubble. 3, monetary policy has the possibility of marginal tightening. This year the tightness of monetary policy changes and stock market showed a high degree of association, at the end of February the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting after the currency turn loose, the index bottomed in April; see high inflation, monetary tightening, index from June onwards callback; marginal relaxation, market ushered in the food market. The probability of subsequent monetary market has gradually tightened, hand cut RRR is expected to fall to the expected difference, on the other hand, the inflation rate probably bottomed out at the end of August, will return to the vicinity of 2.3%, in addition, to curb real estate bubble, the Fed rate hike decision will also constrain monetary policy. 4, the United States expected interest rate fluctuations. Prior to the G20, the market fluctuations in the exchange rate sensitivity decreased, then the RMB exchange rate may be accompanied by the United States to raise interest rates at the time of the expected volatility of the stock market impact. The recent Jackson Hole conference Yellen Eagle position, and the weak payrolls data fed rate hike is expected to occur repeatedly, after the payrolls data, an important statement, the FOMC decision and other events may lead to disturbance of market exchange rate fluctuations. If the real interest rate hike in the year, there will be a larger expected impact on the market. 5, the United States presidential election uncertainty theory相关的主题文章: